Pierre-Simon Laplace

their relationships, that he is led to discover these laws...

In view of modern theories of impacts of comets on the Earth it is particularly interesting to see Laplace's remarkably modern view of this:-

... the small probability of collision of the Earth and a comet can become very great in adding over a long sequence of centuries. It is easy to picture the effects of this impact on the Earth. The axis and the motion of rotation have changed, the seas abandoning their old position..., a large part of men and animals drowned in this universal deluge, or destroyed by the violent tremor imparted to the terrestrial globe.

Exposition du systeme du monde was written as a non-mathematical introduction to Laplace's most important work Traité du Mécanique Céleste whose first volume appeared three years later. Laplace had already discovered the invariability of planetary mean motions. In 1786 he had proved that the eccentricities and inclinations of planetary orbits to each other always remain small, constant, and self-correcting. These and many other of his earlier results formed the basis for his great work the Traité du Mécanique Céleste published in 5 volumes, the first two in 1799.

The first volume of the Mécanique Céleste is divided into two books, the first on general laws of equilibrium and motion of solids and also fluids, while the second book is on the law of universal gravitation and the motions of the centres of gravity of the bodies in the solar system. The main mathematical approach here is the setting up of differential equations and solving them to describe the resulting motions. The second volume deals with mechanics applied to a study of the planets. In it Laplace included a study of the shape of the Earth which included a discussion of data obtained from several different expeditions, and Laplace applied his theory of errors to the results. Another topic studied here by Laplace was the theory of the tides but  Airy, giving his own results nearly 50 years later, wrote:-

It would be useless to offer this theory in the same shape in which Laplace has given it; for that part of the Mécanique Céleste which contains the theory of tides is perhaps on the whole more obscure than any other part...

In the Mécanique Céleste  Laplace's equation appears but although we now name this equation after Laplace, it was in fact known before the time of Laplace. The  Legendre functions also appear here and were known for many years as the Laplace coefficients. The Mécanique Céleste does not attribute many of the ideas to the work of others but Laplace was heavily influenced by  Lagrange and by  Legendre and used methods which they had developed with few references to the originators of the ideas.

Under Napoleon Laplace was a member, then chancellor, of the Senate, and received the Legion of Honour in 1805. However Napoleon, in his memoirs written on St Hélène, says he removed Laplace from the office of Minister of the Interior, which he held in 1799, after only six weeks:-

... because he brought the spirit of the infinitely small into the government.

Laplace became Count of the Empire in 1806 and he was named a marquis in 1817 after the restoration of the Bourbons.

The first edition of Laplace's Théorie Analytique des Probabilités was published in 1812. This first edition was dedicated to Napoleon-le-Grand but, for obvious reason, the dedication was removed in later editions! The work consisted of two books and a second edition two years later saw an increase in the material by about an extra 30 per cent.

The first book studies generating functions and also approximations to various expressions occurring in probability theory. The second book contains Laplace's definition of probability,  Bayes's rule (so named by  Poincaré many years later), and remarks on moral and mathematical expectation. The book continues with methods of finding probabilities of compound events when the probabilities of their simple components are known, then a discussion of the method of least squares,  Buffon's needle problem, and inverse probability. Applications to mortality, life expectancy and the length of marriages are given and finally Laplace looks at moral expectation and probability in legal matters.

Later editions of the Théorie Analytique des Probabilités also contains supplements which consider applications of probability to: errors in observations; the determination of the masses of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus; triangulation methods in surveying; and problems of geodesy in particular the determination of the meridian of France. Much of this work was done by Laplace between 1817 and 1819 and appears in the 1820 edition of the Théorie Analytique. A rather less impressive fourth supplement, which returns to the first topic of generating functions, appeared with the 1825 edition. This final supplement was presented to the Institute by Laplace, who was 76 years old by this time, and by his son.

We mentioned briefly above Laplace's first work on physics in 1780 which was outside the area of mechanics in which he contributed so much. Around 1804 Laplace seems to have developed an approach to physics which would be highly influential for some years. This is best explained by Laplace himself:-

... I have sought to establish that the phenomena of nature can be reduced in the last analysis to actions at a distance between molecule and molecule, and that the consideration of these actions must serve as the basis of the mathematical theory of these phenomena.

This approach to physics, attempting to explain everything from the forces acting locally between molecules, already was used by him in the fourth volume of the Mécanique Céleste which appeared in 1805. This volume contains a study of pressure and density, astronomical refraction, barometric pressure and the transmission of gravity based on this new philosophy of physics. It is worth remarking that it was a new approach, not because theories of molecules were new, but rather because it was applied to a much wider range of problems than any previous theory and, typically of Laplace, it was much more mathematical than any previous theories.

Laplace's desire to take a leading role in physics led him to become a founder member of the Société d'Arcueil in around 1805. Together with the chemist Berthollet, he set up the Society which operated out of their homes in Arcueil which was south of Paris. Among the mathematicians who were members of this active group of scientists were  Biot and  Poisson. The group strongly advocated a mathematical approach to science with Laplace playing the leading role. This marks the height of Laplace's influence, dominant also in the Institute and having a powerful influence on the École Polytechnique and the courses that the students studied there.

After the publication of the fourth volume of the Mécanique Céleste, Laplace continued to apply his ideas of physics to other problems such as capillary action (1806-07), double refraction (1809), the velocity of sound (1816), the theory of heat, in particular the shape and rotation of the cooling Earth (1817-1820), and elastic fluids (1821). However during this period his dominant position in French science came to an end and others with different physical theories began to grow in importance.

The Société d'Arcueil, after a few years of high activity, began to become less active with the meetings becoming less regular around 1812. The meetings ended completely the following year.  Arago, who had been a staunch member of the Society, began to favour the wave theory of light as proposed by  Fresnel around 1815 which was directly opposed to the corpuscular theory which Laplace supported and developed. Many of Laplace's other physical theories were attacked, for instance his caloric theory of heat was at odds with the work of  Petit and of  Fourier. However, Laplace did not concede that his physical theories were wrong and kept his belief in fluids of heat and light, writing papers on these topics when over 70 years of age.

At the time that his influence was decreasing, personal tragedy struck Laplace. His only daughter, Sophie-Suzanne, had married the Marquis de Portes and she died in childbirth in 1813. The child, however, survived and it is through her that there are descendants of Laplace. Laplace's son, Charles-Emile, lived to the age of 85 but had no children.

Laplace had always changed his views with the changing political events of the time, modifying his opinions to fit in with the frequent political changes which were typical of this period. This way of behaving added to his success in the 1790s and 1800s but certainly did nothing for his personal relations with his colleagues who saw his changes of views as merely attempts to win favour. In 1814 Laplace supported the restoration of the Bourbon monarchy and caste his vote in the Senate against Napoleon. The Hundred Days were an embarrassment to him the following year and he conveniently left Paris for the critical period. After this he remained a supporter of the Bourbon monarchy and became unpopular in political circles. When he refused to sign the document of the French Academy supporting freedom of the press in 1826, he lost the remaining friends he had in politics.

On the morning of Monday 5 March 1827 Laplace died. Few events would cause the Academy to cancel a meeting but they did on that day as a mark of respect for one of the greatest scientists of all time. Surprisingly there was no quick decision to fill the place left vacant on his death and the decision of the Academy in October 1827 not to fill the vacant place for another 6 months did not result in an appointment at that stage, some further months elapsing before  Puissant was elected as Laplace's successor.

J J O'Connor and E F Robertson

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